The Red Sox won’t have Daisuke Matsuzaka or John Lackey due to elbow surgery in 2012, so the Red Sox’ rotation is going to be very top heavy. Here’s the way the rotation looks for 2012 right now:

#1: Josh Beckett: 31-year old righty Josh Beckett pitched really well last year. He pitched in 30 games (all starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 13-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The bad news for the Red Sox is that Beckett has alternated good and bad years in his time with them, so he is in line for a stinker. Beckett has now pitched in 173 games (all starts) in his first six years with the Red Sox and he is 84-47 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Beckett has outstanding stuff and he is a great competitor on the mound, so he could buck his trend and have another good year for the Red Sox in 2012. Beckett has now pitched in 279 games (276 starts) in his first 11 years in the majors and he is 125-81 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

#2: John Lester: 28-year old lefty John Lester is the best starter the Red Sox have in my opinion. He comes right after hitters with his outstanding stuff. Lester pitched in 31 games (all starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Lester has now pitched in 155 games (154 starts) in his first six years with the Red Sox and he is 76-34 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, as he has been dominating so far in his career. I look for Lester to win a Cy Young at some point in his career….maybe he will in 2012.

#3: Clay Buchholz: 27-year old righty Clay Buchholz is a solid starter, when healthy. He only pitched in 14 games (all starts) for the Red Sox in 2011 and he was 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Buchholz has now pitched in 78 games (76 starts) in his first five years with the Red Sox and he is 35-24 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The Red Sox hope that Buchholz can stay healthy in 2012 as he has the potential to win 15+ games in the near future.

#4 and #5: Daniel Bard: The Red Sox are talking about moving Bard to the rotation for 2012, but I don’t think it’s a good idea. Bard pitched in 70 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 2-9 with 1 save, a 3.33 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has now pitched in 192 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox in his first three years with the team and he is 5-13 with 5 saves, a 2.88 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. The Red Sox should leave him in the pen, where he has excelled. Bard pitched in 22 games (all starts) in his first year in the minors and he was 3-7 with a 7.08 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. He was much better as a reliever in the minors.

Aaron Cook: 32-year old righty Aaron Cook was signed to a minor league deal over the winter by the Red Sox. He will compete for a job in the starting rotation this spring. Cook pitched in 18 games (17 starts) for the Rockies last year and he was 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. Cook has now pitched in 238 games (206 starts) in his first 10 years in the majors and he is 72-68 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Getting out of Colorado might be just what the doctor ordered to get Cook’s career back on the right path.

Vicente Padilla: 34-year old righty Vicente Padilla will have a good shot of winning a job at the back end of the rotation as long as he can stay healthy. Padilla pitched in 9 games (0 starts) for the Dodgers last year and he was 0-0 with 3 saves, a 4.15 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Padilla has now pitched in 330 games (237 starts) in his first 13 years in the majors and he is 104-90 with 5 saves, a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

Andrew Miller: 26-year old lefty Andrew Miller will try to win a spot at the back end of the Red Sox’ rotation this spring. He pitched in 17 games (12 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 6-3 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. Miller has now pitched in 96 games (66 starts) in his first six years in the majors and he is 21-29 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. Miller has good stuff, but if he doesn’t start throwing more strikes, he doesn’t have much of a future with the Red Sox.

Clayton Mortensen: 26-year old righty Clayton Mortensen will likely get a shot this spring to win a spot in the rotation. He pitched in 16 games (6 starts) for the Rockies last year and he was 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Mortensen has now pitched in 24 games (13 starts) in his first three years in the majors and he is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

Felix Doubront: 24-year old lefty Felix Doubront is one of the Red Sox’ better pitching prospects, so he will get a shot to win a spot in the rotation. He pitched in 11 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. Doubront has now pitched in 23 games (3 starts) in his first two years with the Red Sox and he is 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE ROTATION IN 2012: B-

53-year old manager Terry Francona might have done his best job of running the Red Sox last season when they were 89-73 (54.9%) while missing the playoffs. Francona did a great job of coaching up the Red Sox despite big injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury. In Francona’s first seven years in charge in the Red Sox’ dugout, he is 654-480 (57.7%) during the regular season and he is 28-17 (62.2%) during the post season. Francona managed the Red Sox to World Series’ Championships in both 2004 and 2007. Francona is now 939-844 (52.7%) during the regular season in his first 11 years as a manager in the majors and he is 28-17 (62.2%) during the post season. Francona is one of the more underrated managers in baseball as he always seems to get the best out of the Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox are going to have a very solid bullpen in 2011. 30-year old righty Jonathan Papelbon will try to rebound from his worst season in the majors in 2010. He pitched in 65 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 5-7 with 37 saves, a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has now pitched in 333 games (3 starts) in his first six years in the majors and he is 19-18 with 188 saves, a 2.22 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has only allowed 272 hits in his first 365 innings pitched while whiffing 422 batters and only walking 105 which shows just how good he has been so far in his major league career. I look for him to bounce back big time for the Red Sox in 2011.

25-year old righty fireballer Daniel Bard will set up Papelbon in 2011. Bard pitched in 73 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last season and he was 1-2 with 3 saves, a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He only gave up 46 hits in 74 2/3 innings for the Red Sox last year while whiffing 76 times which shows just how nasty he is. Bard has now pitched in 122 games (0 starts) in his first two years with the Red Sox and he is 3-4 with 4 saves, a 2.61 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He is likely the Red Sox’ closer of the future.

30-year old righty Bobby Jenks was signed over the winter to add support to the back end of the bullpen. Jenks pitched in 55 games (0 starts) for the White Sox last year and he was 1-3 with 27 saves, a 4.44 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He has now pitched in 329 games (0 starts) in his first six years in the majors and he is 14-18 with 173 saves, a 3.40 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Obviously, Jenks can close if needed but he’s also more than good enough to set up Daniel Bard & Jonathan Papelbon in 2011.

33-year old righty Dan Wheeler has been a solid reliever for the long time, so the Red Sox are happy to have him. Wheeler pitched in 64 games (0 starts) for the Rays last year and he was 2-4 with 3 saves, a 3.35 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has now pitched in 530 games (9 starts) in his first 11 years in the majors and he is 23-41 with 43 saves, a 3.84 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Wheeler will likely get most of his work in the middle innings for the Red Sox in 2011.

35-year old lefty Hideki Okajima is coming off a terrible year for the Red Sox. He pitched in 56 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. Okajima has now pitched in 254 games (0 starts) in his first four years with the Red Sox and he is 16-8 with 6 saves, a 3.06 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. The Red Sox hope that Okajima can get back into the groove he was in the first three years with the team.

23-year old lefty Felix Doubront comes into this year as the Red Sox’ #5 prospect according to Baseball America. Doubront pitched in 12 games (3 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He also pitched in 17 games (16 starts) in AA+AAA-ball last year and he was 8-3 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Doubront is likely duking it out with Okajima for one spot in the Red Sox’ bullpen.

34-year old righty Scott Atchison is going to have to pitch better than he did in 2011 if he wants to make the Red Sox’ opening day pitching staff. Atchison pitched in 43 games (1 start) for the Red Sox last year and he was 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has now pitched in 96 games (1 start) in his first four years in the majors and he is 4-6 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Atchison will be working in the middle and early innings if he wins a spot in the Red Sox’ bullpen in 2011.

28-year old righty Alfredo Aceves is a very solid pitcher when healthy. He pitched in 10 games (0 starts) for the Yankees last year and he was 3-0 with 1 save, a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Aceves has now pitched in 59 games (5 starts) in his first three years in the majors and he is 14-1 with 2 saves, a 3.21 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. If Aceves can stay healthy he could be one of the Red Sox’ secret weapons in 2011.

28-year old righty Matt Albers pitched in 62 games (0 starts) for the Orioles last year and he was 5-3 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has now pitched in 181 games (23 starts) in his first five years in the majors and he is 15-25 with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Albers has always had good stuff, so maybe the pitching coach on the Red Sox can get him to realize his potential.

25-year old lefty Andrew Miller is a longshot to help out the Red Sox’ pen in 2011. Miller pitched in 9 games (7 starts) for the Marlins last year and he was 1-5 with a 8.54 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP. He has now pitched in 79 games (54 starts) in his first five years in the majors and he is 15-26 with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. Miller will likely start the 2011 season in AAA, as he will continue to work in relief.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE RED SOX BULLPEN IN 2011: A

The Boston Red Sox starting rotation looks pretty set heading into the 2011 season. 27-year old lefty Jon Lester should be the #1 starter for the Red Sox in 2011 as he is the best the team has to offer. Lester started 32 games for the Red Sox last season and he was 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Over his last three years, Lester has started 97 games for the Red Sox and he is 50-23 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Lester is one of the best, if not the best, lefty starting pitchers in all of baseball. He’s fearless, and very aggressive with his 95+ mph fastball. This could be the season Lester wins a Cy Young Award.

30-year old righty Josh Beckett will likely be the #2 starter for the Red Sox heading into this year. Beckett started 21 games for the Red Sox last season and he was 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He was awful last season and he really wasn’t right all year long due to nagging injuries. Beckett has started 143 games in his first five years with the Red Sox and he is 71-40 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The Red Sox hope that a return to health will get Beckett back to being the pitcher he once was.

26-year old righty Clay Buchholz finally rewarded the Red Sox for their faith in him. Buchholz started 28 games for the Red Sox last season and he was 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. That came pretty much out of nowhere but the Red Sox couldn’t be happier with him. Buchholz has now pitched in 64 games (62 starts) in his first four years with the Red Sox and he is 29-21 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. It will be interesting to see what Buchholz does for an encore in 2011.

The Red Sox are hoping for a lot more out of 32-year old righty starting pitcher John Lackey in 2011. Lackey started 33 games for the Red Sox last season and he was 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has now pitched in 267 games (266 starts) in his first 9 years in the majors and he is 116-82 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. The Red Sox are hoping that Lackey gets his ERA and WHIP back to his career norms in 2011.

30-year old right Daisuke Matsuzaka will return as the Red Sox’ #5 starter in 2011. Matsuzaka started 25 games for the Red Sox last season and he was 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has now pitched in 98 games (all starts) in his first four years with the Red Sox and he is 46-27 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He only has had 1 year in the majors with an ERA of under 4.40 and he has walked 4.3 batters per 9 innings over his major league career. Matsuzaka is sometimes hard to watch, but if he can give the Red Sox 5-6 good innings per night…he will win his fair share of games in 2011.

43-year old righty knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will be the long man in the pen and replace someone in the rotation if the need arises for the Red Sox in 2011. Wakefield pitched in 32 games (19 starts) for the Red Sox last season and he was 4-10 with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has now pitched in 557 games (407 starts) in 16 years with the Red Sox and he is 179-160 with 22 saves, a 4.39 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Wakefield is #3 all-time in Red Sox history in wins (13 behind Roger Clemens & Cy Young). He’s also #2 in games pitched (557), #1 in games started (407) and he’s #2 in strikeouts (1,953) in Red Sox’ history.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE RED SOX STARTING ROTATION IN 2011: A

34-year old lefty swinging J.D. Drew will be the Red Sox starting RF once again in 2011. He played in 139 games for the Red Sox last season and he was 122 of 478 (.255 avg, .793 OPS) with 69 runs scored, 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 3 stolen bases. Drew has a career batting average of .281 with a .886 OPS in his first 13 years in the majors, so the Red Sox hope he will be a little bit better in 2011 than he was in 2010. Drew only made 1 error in 133 games in RF last season while showing slightly below average range. He doesn’t have much of an arm left though as he only had 1 assist. I think the Red Sox are going to watch Drew’s playing time while replacing him a lot late in games for defensive purposes.

Darnell McDonald & Mike Cameron will likely be the guys used to try to keep Drew healthy in 2011. Cameron didn’t play any games in RF last season but he should be able to handle it pretty well. McDonald played in 34 games in RF last season and he had 1 error and 1 assist while showing average range.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE RED SOX RF IN 2011: B-