The Red Sox won’t have Daisuke Matsuzaka or John Lackey due to elbow surgery in 2012, so the Red Sox’ rotation is going to be very top heavy. Here’s the way the rotation looks for 2012 right now:
#1: Josh Beckett: 31-year old righty Josh Beckett pitched really well last year. He pitched in 30 games (all starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 13-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The bad news for the Red Sox is that Beckett has alternated good and bad years in his time with them, so he is in line for a stinker. Beckett has now pitched in 173 games (all starts) in his first six years with the Red Sox and he is 84-47 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Beckett has outstanding stuff and he is a great competitor on the mound, so he could buck his trend and have another good year for the Red Sox in 2012. Beckett has now pitched in 279 games (276 starts) in his first 11 years in the majors and he is 125-81 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
#2: John Lester: 28-year old lefty John Lester is the best starter the Red Sox have in my opinion. He comes right after hitters with his outstanding stuff. Lester pitched in 31 games (all starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Lester has now pitched in 155 games (154 starts) in his first six years with the Red Sox and he is 76-34 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, as he has been dominating so far in his career. I look for Lester to win a Cy Young at some point in his career….maybe he will in 2012.
#3: Clay Buchholz: 27-year old righty Clay Buchholz is a solid starter, when healthy. He only pitched in 14 games (all starts) for the Red Sox in 2011 and he was 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Buchholz has now pitched in 78 games (76 starts) in his first five years with the Red Sox and he is 35-24 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The Red Sox hope that Buchholz can stay healthy in 2012 as he has the potential to win 15+ games in the near future.
#4 and #5: Daniel Bard: The Red Sox are talking about moving Bard to the rotation for 2012, but I don’t think it’s a good idea. Bard pitched in 70 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 2-9 with 1 save, a 3.33 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has now pitched in 192 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox in his first three years with the team and he is 5-13 with 5 saves, a 2.88 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. The Red Sox should leave him in the pen, where he has excelled. Bard pitched in 22 games (all starts) in his first year in the minors and he was 3-7 with a 7.08 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. He was much better as a reliever in the minors.
Aaron Cook: 32-year old righty Aaron Cook was signed to a minor league deal over the winter by the Red Sox. He will compete for a job in the starting rotation this spring. Cook pitched in 18 games (17 starts) for the Rockies last year and he was 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. Cook has now pitched in 238 games (206 starts) in his first 10 years in the majors and he is 72-68 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Getting out of Colorado might be just what the doctor ordered to get Cook’s career back on the right path.
Vicente Padilla: 34-year old righty Vicente Padilla will have a good shot of winning a job at the back end of the rotation as long as he can stay healthy. Padilla pitched in 9 games (0 starts) for the Dodgers last year and he was 0-0 with 3 saves, a 4.15 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Padilla has now pitched in 330 games (237 starts) in his first 13 years in the majors and he is 104-90 with 5 saves, a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.
Andrew Miller: 26-year old lefty Andrew Miller will try to win a spot at the back end of the Red Sox’ rotation this spring. He pitched in 17 games (12 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 6-3 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. Miller has now pitched in 96 games (66 starts) in his first six years in the majors and he is 21-29 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. Miller has good stuff, but if he doesn’t start throwing more strikes, he doesn’t have much of a future with the Red Sox.
Clayton Mortensen: 26-year old righty Clayton Mortensen will likely get a shot this spring to win a spot in the rotation. He pitched in 16 games (6 starts) for the Rockies last year and he was 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Mortensen has now pitched in 24 games (13 starts) in his first three years in the majors and he is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
Felix Doubront: 24-year old lefty Felix Doubront is one of the Red Sox’ better pitching prospects, so he will get a shot to win a spot in the rotation. He pitched in 11 games (0 starts) for the Red Sox last year and he was 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. Doubront has now pitched in 23 games (3 starts) in his first two years with the Red Sox and he is 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.
PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE ROTATION IN 2012: B-